Not sure how we avoided a real hurricane this year

posted by Jeff | Wednesday, November 11, 2020, 8:33 PM | comments: 0

If there's anything that you could count on for 2020, it's that it would keep throwing crap at you. With a particularly active hurricane season where they ran the whole series of named storms, it seems almost impossible that none of them really hit Central Florida in a meaningful way.

Right now the outer bands of tropical storm Eta are messing with us for the second time, and we'll have sustained wind around maybe 20 mph, with gusts up to 40. That's not quite bring-in-your-patio-chairs weather, but it's interesting enough. We haven't had anything serious here since Irma, three years ago, which is just fine.

In fact, after seven years living here, we've only had Irma, and Matthew which ended up not being serious (and we were in North Carolina when it hit anyway). I always had a mental picture of it being a more frequent thing in Florida, but weather reputations are rarely earned. People seem disappointed to hear that it doesn't rain every day, all year, in Seattle, that you need to water your lawn in the summer or it will die.

I do imagine that it's going to get weird in Florida, especially the southeast coastal areas, in the next few decades. If you don't believe the science of climate change, believe the risk profile that insurers place on property there. Insurance is not an emotional issue, it's just numbers. I know those areas are very low-lying, with the sea literally coming up through the ground in places, but I wonder if further up the coast that's less likely. Even in places like Cocoa Beach and around Merritt Island, it seems like the land is high enough to survive. I wouldn't mind living out there someday in a tiny place on top of a sand dune.

I know the odds of a storm viewed in any single year don't change much, but karma feels like we're due.


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